Market Commentary: Bitcoin ETF On The Horizon As Binance Heads West

The crypto markets are continuing to diversify. As Bitcoin stabilizes above the $10,200 price level, altcoins present a varied picture of green and red. Notable movements come from BNB (-4.74%), BSV (-4.33%), Maker (-4.62%), ICON (+3.37%).

 

Cryptocurrency market dynamics since September 11. Source: Coin360

 

As institutional investment ramps up, a full Bitcoin ETF could be inching closer. SEC Chairman Jay Clayton noted in an interview with CNBC that there are only two major issues left to be solved for the approval of an ETF: safe custody of crypto assets, and proving that the price isn’t subject to manipulation.

According to Senior Analyst at eToro Mati Greenspan, Bitcoin was born to solve the first question. “In fact, verifying ownership is kind of what crypto does best,” he wrote in a report.

While certainly true, a slightly more nuanced problem is verifying the lack of ownership. Since private keys can be copied, it could be difficult to prove that custody is in fact limited to those who are authorized. Greenspan’s answer probably won’t satisfy the SEC, but the recent appearance of regulated custodians such as Bakkt and Coinbase might do the trick.

Addressing the second issue, Greenspan noted that “The decentralized nature of price discovery in the crypto market is another one of its star qualities and makes it far more resilient to price manipulation.”

There are enough regulated exchanges in the world to potentially address the SEC’s concerns. We will know whether it’s enough on October 13 and 18, when the SEC deliberates on the Bitwise and VanEck ETFs.

But there is one notable exchange that is not yet regulated in the U.S., which may face other troubles.

BNB Traders Spooked as Binance Prepares For American Expansion

Binance Coin is slumping from the temporary loss of U.S. traders, falling more than 4 percent as of the time of writing. First announced in June, today Binance restricted access for U.S. users.

Despite plenty of advanced warning, it appears that the market has not priced in the loss of such a valuable user segment.

 

Binance views breakdown. Source: SimilarWeb

 

The United States accounted for 9.36% of Binance users in the month of August, according to SimilarWeb estimates. That percentage has fallen significantly from previous months, but still represented the largest contingent of Binance traders.

The effects of the closure are likely to be temporary, as Binance transitions its American users to a new platform. “Users will continue to have access to their wallets and funds on Binance,” emphasized CEO Changpeng Zhao. “After September 12, 2019, in accordance with our Terms of Use, identified users will be assisted with a seamless transition to our partner Binance.US once the platform launches.”

The new platform is expected to open for deposits next week, with trading in Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and USDT.  Crypto Briefing previously analyzed the potential impact of losing U.S. customers, especially for some of the less liquid coins, but some of those fears may be allayed by the transition process.

Santander issues blockchain bond

Spain’s Banco Santander has announced the issue of the first end-to-end blockchain bond. The transaction has been entirely internal, with Santander acting as the issuer of the $20 million bond, and one of its subsidiaries purchasing it.

Nevertheless, this represents an important test for the tokenization of mainstream securities, with the bank using the Ethereum blockchain for bond custody. In addition, both the cash for purchase and the quarterly coupons have been tokenized on-chain, creating a complete offering that the bank hopes will please its most innovative clients.

Kraken lists ICON

ICON (ICX) was listed today on Kraken Exchange, causing a short term spike of nearly five percent. Unlike many other exchanges, Kraken does not divulge information about its upcoming listings, often creating a surprise effect that results in mild price swings.

Price Commentary: Nathan Batchelor On Bitcoin

Bitcoin is steadily rising above the psychological $10,000 level as we head into the U.S trading session. Buyers have created a bullish higher low on the daily chart, after sellers failed to break the current weekly trading low on Wednesday.

Short-term technical analysis is pointing to a pending test of $10,420 level, which is important for a number of reasons. The BTC/USD pair’s 50-day moving average is currently located around that technical region, alongside its calculated monthly pivot point.

Interestingly, the Ichimoku indicator highlights the $10,600 level across various time frames as the most important technical area for BTC / USD bulls to break over the coming sessions.

 

 

The Ichimoku indicator on the four-hour time frame shows that the BTC / USD pair is virtually free from technical resistance once above the $10,600 level, exposing the neckline of the previously mentioned bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern, around the $10,960 level.

The Ichimoku indicator on the weekly time frame also highlights the $10,600 level as an extreme area of technical importance, with a weekly price close above this key area leaving the BTC / USD free from long-term technical resistance.

From a bearish perspective, the weekly time frame is also telling an interesting story. The weekly time frame strongly suggests that if the BTC / USD pair fails to overcome the $10,600 technical area, we will likely see a push towards the $8,880 level.

In summary, the $10,420 level is highly important from a technical perspective. However, the Ichimoku indicator is showing that the $10,600 level may actually be more significant over the long-term.

*Bitcoin bulls need to move price above $10,420 level on an intraday basis to encourage a test of the $10,600 technical area.*

SENTIMENT
Intraday bullish sentiment for Bitcoin has slipped lower, to 46.00%, according to the latest data from TheTIE.io. Long-term sentiment for the cryptocurrency is also slightly down, at 66.00 % positive.

UPSIDE POTENTIAL
The short-term technicals show the $10,120 level as the near-term resistance area that BTC / USD bulls need to hold in order to secure a test of the $10,420 level.

The $10,600 technical area should start to come into focus if bulls can move price above the $10,420 level. Once clearly above the $10,600 level, it should be relatively plain sailing for BTC / USD bulls, leaving the $10,960 level as the next upside target.

DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL
The $9,876 level remained intact yesterday, although short-term analysis suggests that further attempts towards the weekly low could come if price fails to hold price above the $10,120 level.

Major support below the $9,876 level is found at the $9,700 level, with the $9,450 level then becoming the main technical support area before the current monthly trading low comes into focus.

A full version of Nathan Batchelor’s Daily Bitcoin Commentary, together with his calls, is available to SIMETRI Research subscribers earlier in the day.

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