Here Is Why The Bitcoin Bull Run Hasn’t Started, According To Analyst

The Bitcoin community have been eagerly awaiting the start of a new bull market especially following the recent halving that occurred in April, however, according to a latest analysis from a CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Onchained, that moment has not yet arrived and there is a reason.

In the post uploaded on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, Onchained’s analysis focused on the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Mourad Ratio, a proprietary indicator that tracks UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) held for more than six months.

This ratio basically helps gauge market sentiment and accumulation trends among long-term Bitcoin holders, offering valuable insights into when BTC may enter its next bull phase.

Stability In The Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio

One of the key indicators highlighted in the analysis is the stability of the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio. Historically, when this ratio remains stable, it suggests that the market is not yet ready for a significant upward movement.

Onchained explained that a bull market typically begins only when the ratio starts to deviate negatively from these stable levels. Currently, data shows that the LTH Mourad Ratio is steady, signaling that Bitcoin’s bull run is yet to begin.

This stableness in the ratio as revealed by the analyst,  indicates that long-term holders are not yet driving substantial price movement in the market, and investors may need to exercise patience until more favourable conditions arise.

For further context, the Mourad Ratio is calculated by dividing the Long-Term Holder Mourad Current Transaction Value (LTH MCTV) by the current Bitcoin price.

This calculation provides insight into the average value of UTXOs aged over six months, giving a clearer picture of recent accumulation trends among longer-term BTC holders.

Technicals Suggests Bitcoin Bull Run Is Not So Far

While Onchained analysis has confirmed that Bitcoin bull run is yet to start, other analysts has turned to historical price chart to gauge when the bull run for BTC could begin from a technical perspective.

Popular Bitcoin insight platform known as Bitcoin archive on X has recently highlighted that BTC is on the verge of making a “bullish cross-over on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.”

According to Bitcoin Archive, the last two times this happened, BTC went up by 79% and 74%, therefore, should this repeat itself again, Bitcoin could surge past $100,000.

Bitcoin MACD about to make a bullish cross-over on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.

Last 2x Bitcoin went up 79% and 74%.

#Bitcoin will surge OVER $100K if this repeated. pic.twitter.com/USTaCzHD44

— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) September 25, 2024

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView