Bitcoin Volatility Still Low Compared To Past Cycle: Is BTC Ready To Hit ATH In 2024?

Bitcoin has surged over the past few days, sparking a shift in market sentiment as investors take notice of its renewed momentum. 

Despite the recent price gains, key data from Coinglass reveals that Bitcoin’s volatility remains notably low compared to past cycles. This unusual calm amid the surge has raised questions about whether BTC is gearing up for another major move, potentially pushing toward all-time highs (ATH) this year.

Historically, Bitcoin’s largest rallies have been accompanied by sharp spikes in volatility, but the current data suggests the market may be waiting for a catalyst to unleash stronger price action. Analysts are closely monitoring this trend, with some suggesting that the low volatility could indicate a period of consolidation before a significant breakout. 

As Bitcoin continues to climb, breaking through key resistance levels, traders are left wondering if this sustained, low-volatility environment will persist—or if a sudden shift could propel BTC to new heights.

Bitcoin has seen a significant price surge since Tuesday, following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 50 bps interest rate cut. 

This rally has reignited optimism in the crypto market, with some investors and analysts suggesting this could mark a turning point that leads to a broader uptrend. The Federal Reserve’s decision is seen as a major factor in the recent price action, as lower interest rates tend to push investors toward riskier assets like BTC, fueling demand.

Prominent crypto analyst Daan has shared key data from Coinglass, highlighting that Bitcoin’s volatility remains relatively high for this cycle. However, when compared to previous cycles, it has yet to reach the extreme levels that typically accompany major price movements. 

According to Daan, this suggests that while BTC is experiencing some volatility, the real surge could still be ahead. He believes that once the price breaks out of the consolidation range it has been in for most of 2024, volatility will increase significantly.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut may act as the catalyst for this next phase. If BTC can maintain momentum and break through key resistance levels, the market could see a rapid acceleration in price action, potentially leading to new highs as volatility kicks in. For now, investors are watching closely to see if this consolidation phase will give way to a stronger rally.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,995 after facing a clear rejection from the daily 200 moving average (MA) at $63,977. This key indicator signals long-term strength for BTC, and reclaiming it as support could trigger a significant surge in price. 

For bulls to maintain momentum, the price must hold above the crucial $60,000 level and eventually reclaim the daily 200 MA. If BTC manages to break past this resistance and solidify support, a rapid challenge to local highs around $65,000 is expected, with the possibility of testing $69,000—the previous all-time high set during the 2021 cycle. 

However, failure to maintain the $60,000 support level could lead to a deeper correction, pushing the price down into lower demand levels. Investors are closely watching these key levels to determine the next move in Bitcoin’s price action, as holding above $60,000 remains critical to sustaining bullish momentum.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView